1. Surely one should excess deaths rather than official COVID death to calculate mortality rates? When doing this SA COVID deaths per X seem in line with global standards.
2. "South Africa was forced to accept a $4 billion loan from the IMF" - I don't recall it happening like this - "forced". SA pre-emptively asked the IMF for a loan through its short-term fund. We requested it. I supported this request. But note we still had - and have - space for QE and borrowing in bond market. It was not a last resort.
Strong comment. SA death rates might be in line with global death rates but that doesn’t speak to the rest of the continent. Yet, even with excess rates across Africa, mortality rates are still low compared with global standards. Taking excess death rates in account is also very tricky business. Where do you draw the line and say that an excess death is actually COVID related?
As for the IMF loan, my tone might have been a bit harsh. I suppose I am swayed by the strong resistance to such loans in some political circles here and that bleed through in the writing.
Very interesting! A few thoughts:
1. Surely one should excess deaths rather than official COVID death to calculate mortality rates? When doing this SA COVID deaths per X seem in line with global standards.
2. "South Africa was forced to accept a $4 billion loan from the IMF" - I don't recall it happening like this - "forced". SA pre-emptively asked the IMF for a loan through its short-term fund. We requested it. I supported this request. But note we still had - and have - space for QE and borrowing in bond market. It was not a last resort.
Strong comment. SA death rates might be in line with global death rates but that doesn’t speak to the rest of the continent. Yet, even with excess rates across Africa, mortality rates are still low compared with global standards. Taking excess death rates in account is also very tricky business. Where do you draw the line and say that an excess death is actually COVID related?
As for the IMF loan, my tone might have been a bit harsh. I suppose I am swayed by the strong resistance to such loans in some political circles here and that bleed through in the writing.
I agree. In the rest of the continent it may well be that death rates are low for some unknown reason.