I said this newsletter would contain under-reported stories from Southern Africa. That’s still the plan, but I have a couple of observations about the recent Israel-UAE peace deal. I’ve been reticent to comment on the deal because I still write for several Gulf publications, and there’s a great deal of sensitivity when it comes to open discussion of their decisions. I’m going to share my thoughts anyway, given the gravity of the deal and my experience living in both countries. That’s the spirit of a newsletter, right?
Palestinians don’t matter
The Palestinian struggle hasn’t mattered to the foreign policy of the Gulf states for years. Don’t be fooled by pundits who argue Qatar is different in this regard. The Qataris have been just as interested in Israel at the expense of Palestinians as the Emiratis and Saudis. It’s a regional obsession.
While Gulf decision-makers are entranced by Israel, Arab public opinion is another story. Yousef Munayyer notes that Arab public opinion is decidedly against normalization with Israel in this thoughtful piece for CNN (of all outlets). The only problem is that Gulf leaders don’t care much about public opinion. Munayyer adds,
“Appalled at what Israel has been doing to Palestinians for decades, the Arab public is decidedly against establishing diplomatic ties with Israel. A poll in 2018 found that 87% of respondents in various Arab countries opposed establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, and the largest group of respondents cited Israel's oppression of Palestinians as the reason why.”
Knowledge economies
During my time living in Abu Dhabi, I was struck by the interest in Israel. I heard Hebrew in grocery stores, and there was the “secret” flight between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. The admiration for the country was palpable and strange. There’s the popular anecdote describing Abu Dhabi as a sort of mini-Israel, given its general view of the region as unpredictably hostile and its obsession with military equipment. Dubai, on the other hand, fashions itself as an open trading center like Singapore.
Israel’s success as a knowledge economy is deeply appealing and the key to understanding the latest events. Over the past decade, Abu Dhabi has spent millions of dollars branding itself as a bridge between East and West. In the fantasy world that emerging markets will eventually drive the global economy, the UAE sees itself as a vital hub connecting a new transnational middle class through trade and aviation.
The key to this vision is the UAE transforming itself into a viable knowledge economy. Some of the world’s finest research institutions have been imported (at incredible cost) to further this goal. The Emirati health care sector has also expanded through massive investments as part of this broader knowledge economy push. For all the investment and talk of technology, the country is still tied to hydrocarbon sales. With the recent collapse in oil prices and decline in tourism, the UAE economy is in a dire situation.
Israeli partnership could breathe new energy into the sluggish economy. This isn’t about desalination or agricultural technology. Think medical tourism, research, and partnership. With one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, expect the UAE to swiftly import Israel’s successful fertility program. Throw in Israel’s enviable relationship with the United States and you have the seeds of a fruitful economic partnership. It also doesn’t hurt that Israel exports sophisticated surveillance software regardless of its intended use.
Iran isn’t the driver
Let’s not get trapped in the political and security aspects of the deal because they aren’t fundamentally new. The existence of deep Israeli-Emirati security ties is well documented and has been out in the open for years. Given the already entrenched military co-operation between Israel and its Gulf allies, formal relations won’t recalibrate the geopolitical calculus. The big story is economic co-operation and Israel’s willingness to export its “start-up nation” model to the UAE.
As for the Palestinians, this agreement doesn’t change much. Few Palestinians are scanning the horizon in the hope that Emirati soldiers will appear and help liberate Jerusalem. Those who have been around long enough can’t forget that “shadowy wheeler-dealer” Mohammed Dahlan has been quietly advising the UAE government for years and preparing for his installation as the next Palestinian Authority chairperson. It will be a dark day for the Palestinian people when and if Dahlan is installed as the next leader in Ramallah. We will cross that bridge when we get there.
The deal does accomplish one thing: It strikes perhaps the final blow to the decomposing corpse of the two-state solution. By removing the incentive of normalization with Arab states, Israel has no reason to change its footprint in the West Bank and Gaza. It’s surprising to me that two-state champions aren’t more upset about this. Once the PR dust settles from Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, the region won’t be much changed. The cold economics that have defined the relationship are now formal, which is more bad news for the Palestinians.
Some Things I Read Recently (this is a newsletter, after all):
South Africa’s new $4.3bn IMF loan sparks a seismic shift in local politics
On reading books and buying them second hand
Octavia Butler’s prescient vision of a zealot elected to “Make America Great Again”
Zimbabwean writer Tsitsi Dangarembga: 'I am afraid. There have been abductions'
If you like this piece, please hit the heart button below. It helps me reach more readers. Email me any thoughts and consider subscribing here. Next week’s issue is going to be all about Mozambique.